Speculators' dominance in the Index futures market during COVID-19

A recent study shows that index futures prices are influenced by the index's liquidity. This research describes the state of the index futures market following the epidemic as seen by index futures mispricing affected by liquidity and volatility during the outbreak.

Asset-Based Futures: A Sociology for the 21st Century

This article engages with the question of whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be understood as an event that is moving us towards a new era. Highlighting the paradox that this question has emerged in the context of the stoppages and shutdowns associated with the pandemic, we suggest that any assessment of social change and the futures such change might unfold must be situated on the terrain formatted by the temporal logics of capitalism. At our current juncture this requires that sociology as a discipline understand these logics as asset rather than commodity based. Drawing on state responses to the pandemic in Australia, we show how mundane payments play a critical role in these logics, operating as differentiating technologies of time. We suggest that for sociology to build a sociology of futures that is relevant for the 21st century, it must come to terms with the time machine of the asset economy.

A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market

We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including variations related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with a Bayesian approach that allows to impose restrictions directly on structural parameters of interest, such as supply and demand elasticizes. Our model incorporates both the futures-spot price spread to capture shocks to the real price of crude oil driven by changes in expectations and US inventories to describe price fluctuations due to unexpected variations of above-ground stocks. Including the futures-spot price spread is key for accounting for feedback effects from the financial to the physical market for crude oil and for identifying a new structural shock that we label expectational shock. This shock plays a crucial role when describing the series of events that have led to the spike in the price of crude oil recorded in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Islamic and Conventional Banks' Profitability

The banking sector has a significant impact on a nation's financial stability and economic development. As one of the fundamental components of the financial sector, banks offer services that are essential for the expansion of the markets. The stability of the financial system is significantly impacted by the efficiency of the banking sector. COVID-19 has had a tremendous effect on the economy. This pandemic cannot be disregarded, considering how widespread it has been and how many people it has affected globally. Both society and the global economy have undergone profound change. Hence, it is critical to ascertain how severely the outbreak has impacted the banking system. To assess the potential impact of pandemic, the current study examined conventional and Islamic banking. This study also investigates how COVID-19's moderating effect influences the banking system. Financial statements from 10 conventional banks and 5 Islamic banks in Pakistan are the sources of this study's sample data. COVID-19 is a moderator in this study. The empirical estimations by means of the fixed-effects approach suggests that the moderator has a large impact on bank profitability. In addition, COVID-19 appears to have a stronger influence on the Islamic banking system.

Market efficiency and information flow between the crude palm oil and crude oil futures markets

This study analyzes the efficiency of the crude palm oil (CPO) futures market by conducting a variance ratio test and comparing it to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures market. We discover that the weak-form efficient market hypothesis holds for both the CPO and WTI futures markets despite the significant difference in their liquidity. Using a scaling exponent, we investigate speculative trading activities and find that trading CPO futures in expectation of significant returns does not strongly involve a high level of risk unlike WTI futures. Our findings regarding market efficiency of the two futures markets are supported by the significant integration of the two with similar level of information flow from each market to the other. To explore the role of speculation in their market integration, we introduce a natural experimental setting using the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused a sudden decrease in the demand for fuel. The bidirectional information flow between the two markets is intensified after the COVID-19 pandemic due to lower level of speculation. The findings suggest that (i) stakeholders in the CPO market need to pay attention to the crude oil markets to anticipate its price changes, (ii) investors can use WTI futures as a hedging tool against CPO futures as long as there is mutual information flow, and (iii) regulators should carefully implement new CPO futures market policy, as either asymmetric changes in speculation or unbalanced regulation with the WTI futures market can create market distortion and regulatory arbitrage. © 2022 The Authors

Speculative Vulnerability: Uncovering the Temporalities of Vulnerability in People s Experiences of the Pandemic

Pandemic-tracking apps may form a future infrastructure for public health surveillance. Yet, there has been relatively little exploration of the potential societal implications of such an infrastructure. In semi-structured interviews with 23 participants from India, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the United States, we discussed attitudes and preferences regarding the deployment of apps that support contact tracing to contain the spread of COVID-19. Through interpretive analysis, we examined the relationship between persistent discomfort and vulnerability when using such apps. Such an examination yielded three temporal forms of vulnerability: real, anticipatory, and speculative. By identifying and defining the temporalities of vulnerability through an analysis of people's pandemic-related thoughts and experiences, we develop the overlapping discourses of humanistic infrastructure studies and infrastructural speculation. In doing so, we explore the concept of vulnerability itself and present implications for the study of vulnerability in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) and for the oversight of app-based public health surveillance. © 2022 Owner/Author.

Local Housing Market Sentiments and Returns: Evidence from China

This paper examines the impacts of local housing sentiments on the housing price dynamics of China. With a massive second-hand transaction dataset, we construct monthly local housing sentiment indices for 18 major cities in China from January 2016 to October 2020. We create three sentiment proxies representing the local housing market liquidity and speculative behaviors from the transaction dataset and then use partial least squares (PLS) to extract a recursive look-ahead-bias-free local housing sentiment index for each city considered. The local housing sentiments are shown to have robust predictive powers for future housing returns with a salient short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction pattern. Further analysis shows that local housing sentiment impacts are asymmetric, and housing returns in cities with relatively inelastic housing supply are more sensitive to local housing sentiments. We also document a significant feedback effect between housing returns and market sentiments, indicating the existence of a pricing-sentiment spiral which could potentially enhance the ongoing market fever of Chinese housing markets. The main estimation results are robust to alternative sentiment extraction methods and alternative sentiment proxies, and consistent for the sample period before COVID-19.

Market efficiency and information flow between the crude palm oil and crude oil futures markets

This study analyzes the efficiency of the crude palm oil (CPO) futures market by conducting a variance ratio test and comparing it to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures market. We discover that the weak-form efficient market hypothesis holds for both the CPO and WTI futures markets despite the significant difference in their liquidity. Using a scaling exponent, we investigate speculative trading activities and find that trading CPO futures in expectation of significant returns does not strongly involve a high level of risk unlike WTI futures. Our findings regarding market efficiency of the two futures markets are supported by the significant integration of the two with similar level of information flow from each market to the other. To explore the role of speculation in their market integration, we introduce a natural experimental setting using the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused a sudden decrease in the demand for fuel. The bidirectional information flow between the two markets is intensified after the COVID-19 pandemic due to lower level of speculation. The findings suggest that (i) stakeholders in the CPO market need to pay attention to the crude oil markets to anticipate its price changes, (ii) investors can use WTI futures as a hedging tool against CPO futures as long as there is mutual information flow, and (iii) regulators should carefully implement new CPO futures market policy, as either asymmetric changes in speculation or unbalanced regulation with the WTI futures market can create market distortion and regulatory arbitrage.

Do biofuel production and financial speculation in agricultural commodities influence African food prices? New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach

Many African countries experienced social disorder and subsequent political instability as a result of global commodity price inflation in 2007–2008, which reaffirmed the importance of overseas factors such as biofuel production, international food and energy prices, and financial speculation. Biofuel, in particular, is often placed at the center of the debate around identifying potential determinants of food price hikes. We apply a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extended joint connectedness approach to uncover the dynamic connectivity of African food prices, US biofuel production, global energy and food prices, and financial speculation. The key findings are;1) the results of averaged connectedness suggest that US biofuel production and financial speculation in agricultural commodities significantly influence African food prices;2) the hefty surges in the dynamic connectedness between African food prices and four cross-border factors are triggered by global events like the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 global commodity boom, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic;3) arbitrage transactions transmitted intense shocks to African food prices between 2001 and 2012, while biofuel production constantly affected African food prices between 2001 and 2021. We draw pragmatic policy implications to prevent or mitigate market shock transmissions to African food markets.

Crisis futures: COVID-19 and the speculative turning point of history

Covid-19 was widely pitched as a potential turning point of history, a rare crisis-as-opportunity by political leaders and policymakers. This claim of being at a revolutionary threshold, an exceptional time in history, and capitalising upon that claim to reshape the political-economic landscape is at the core of the speculative politics of crisis, or what I call crisis futures. COVID-19 was widely pitched as a potential turning point of history, a rare crisis-as-opportunity by political leaders and policymakers. Critical in this future-oriented discourse, I argue, is how time is invoked as a good in short supply, a precious opportunity, albeit one that can only be availed within a restricted period. This temporal limitation is what accrues speculative value to the crisis: the urgency to accelerate the desired change and to suspend any opposition to that change. Grounded in the event of the COVID-19 lockdown in India, the article unpacks multiple scales and speeds – of acceleration and slowdowns – that constitute the edifice of crisis futures. It traces how the pandemic crisis was capitalised on by the state, at once, to consolidate India as a commercial enclosure for global capital, as well as a cultural enclosure for Hindu majoritarianism. It asks what precisely is accelerated and what is put on hold, and which events or goals are turned into exceptions within an exceptional moment, such as a pandemic. Finally, the article looks at the modes of ‘im-mediation’ – mass-mediated communication and the activation of pandemic publics – which underpin the politics of crisis futures. © Author 2022.

The virtues of the virus

It is difficult to resist the temptation of analogy when trying to make sense of the proportions of the pandemic event. In the reflections that accompany its uncontrolled spread, Covid-19 has become a sort of generalized metaphor, almost the symbolic precipitate of the human condition in post-modernity. What happened 40 years ago with HIV is repeating itself today. The pandemic appears as a sort of experimentum crucis, able to test hypotheses that go from politics to the effects of globalization to the transformation of communication at the time of the Internet-reaching the heights of the finest metaphysical speculation. The isolation, the mistrust and suspicion the virus causes make it alternatively "populist" and "sovereigntist". The emergency measures it forces upon us seem to universalize the "state of exception" that the present has inherited from the political theology of the twentieth century, confirming Foucault's thesis that modern sovereign power is biopolitical (a power that is articulated in the production, management and administration of "life"). Also, because of the fundamental anonymity characterizing it, the virus seems to share the same immaterial quality that grounds the dominion of financial capitalism. Because of how contagious it is, it can be easily compared to the pre-reflexive and "viral" nature of online communication. Last but not least, the virus signals our eternal human condition. In case we have forgotten that we are mortal, finite, contingent, lacking, ontological, wanting and so forth, the virus is here to remind us, forcing us to meditate and correct our distraction, that of compulsive consumers. These considerations are legitimate. They are, in fact, perfectly justified. This is, however, also their defect. If they make sense, it is precisely because they reduce what is unknown to what is known. They use the virus as intuitive proof that responds-to speak in phenomenological terms-to an expectation that is theoretical. For the critical insight that is being developed around the virus, Covid-19 is rather the name of a science fiction film used to certify previous knowledge. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic

Motivated by increased agricultural commodity price volatility and surges during the past decade, we investigated whether financial speculation is to blame. The aim of this paper is to build on prior research about to what extent and in which ways financial speculation undermines agricultural commodity prices. In our analysis, we utilized the daily returns on milling wheat, corn, and soybean futures from the Euronext Commodities Paris market (MATIF) as well as the short-term speculation index. To quantify this impact, we apply Granger noncausality tests as well as the GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) technique. We also propose a model using seasonal dummy variables to examine whether financial speculation has a greater impact on price volatility during more volatile months. According to our results, financial speculation, as an external factor, in most cases has no effect or reduces the volatility of the underlying futures prices. The opposite is observed in the corn market, where volatility has risen in the post-2020 period and has been pushed up even more by speculation in April. However, since the influence on other commodities is limited or nonexistent, more emphasis should be focused on speculation in the European corn futures market or its interdependence with energy markets.

Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks.

This paper uses a time-varying Granger causality test and time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility model to analyze the effects of infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV), geopolitical risk (GPR), and speculation on commodity returns. The time-varying effects of ID-EMV, GPR, and speculation on commodity returns are investigated and compared in five epidemics during 1998-2021: Bird Flu in 1998, SARS in 2003, Swine Flu in 2009, MERS and Ebola in 2014, and COVID-19 in 2019. A further analysis is performed for five commodity subcategories of textiles, industry, metals, livestock, and food. Results show that time-varying effects are significant, and most responses to ID-EMV are positive, to GPR are changing from negative to positive, and to speculation are negative. Notably, ID-EMV in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the worst hit to commodity returns in more than two decades.

Gustatory and Saliva Secretory Dysfunctions in COVID-19 Patients with Zinc Deficiency.

Given the ever-progressing studies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it is critical to update our knowledge about COVID-19 symptomatology and pathophysiology. In the present narrative review, oral symptoms were overviewed using the latest data and their pathogenesis was hypothetically speculated. PubMed, LitCovid, ProQuest, and Google Scholar were searched for relevant studies from 1 April 2021 with a cutoff date of 31 January 2022. The literature search indicated that gustatory dysfunction and saliva secretory dysfunction are prevalent in COVID-19 patients and both dysfunctions persist after recovery from the disease, suggesting the pathogenic mechanism common to these cooccurring symptoms. COVID-19 patients are characterized by hypozincemia, in which zinc is possibly redistributed from blood to the liver at the expense of zinc in other tissues. If COVID-19 induces intracellular zinc deficiency, the activity of zinc-metalloenzyme carbonic anhydrase localized in taste buds and salivary glands may be influenced to adversely affect gustatory and saliva secretory functions. Zinc-binding metallothioneins and zinc transporters, which cooperatively control cellular zinc homeostasis, are expressed in oral tissues participating in taste and saliva secretion. Their expression dysregulation associated with COVID-19-induced zinc deficiency may have some effect on oral functions. Zinc supplementation is expected to improve oral symptoms in COVID-19 patients.

The COVID-19 pandemic, short-sale ban, and market efficiency: empirical evidence from the European equity markets

This study looks at the inefficiency of stock indices of France, Italy, and Spain around their financial regulatory authorities' short-sale ban during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The empirical analysis of this study provides evidence of price predictability of the basis of futures contract prior to the short-sale restriction. Moreover, the results show a significant underpricing in futures contracts of FTSE MIB and IBEX35 indices while the two months of short-sale banned period. These findings suggest that prohibiting short selling during the market downturn might undermine the stock markets' efficiency and generate arbitrage opportunities for speculative investors.

Promissory shock, broken future: COVID-19 and state-led speculations in biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries in South Korea.

This research examines institutional responses to shocking events, in this case, the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. I argue that our analysis should consider state-led nationalism in finance and financialization especially when new modes of financial accumulation can be correlated with state projects of crisis management. Also, in dealing with shocking events, which are an inevitable aspect of capitalism, I claim nationalistic deregulations and speculation stimulated by institutional discourse can put ordinary people into permanently unpayable debt and reshape social exclusion. Drawing from interpretative policy analysis, I examine how early COVID-19 management by the Korean government took advantage of sloganeering of upper-K words, initiated by the Korean Wave, as discursive tools in invoking nationalistic sentiments. The instutional nationalism in the upper-case K as prefix is examined in promoting Korean biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies and their stocks. Further, I demonstrate how the accumulation strategies of this nationalistic COVID-19 management regarding bio and pharma industries were already practiced before COVID-19 in Korea, by the regulatory sandbox policy along with the Korean legitimation crisis. This set of practices has eventually accelerated the financialization of everyday life and Othering. I call for a critical lens to analyze the pressing agenda of discursive practices in institutional crisis responses.

Futures-oriented drugs policy research: Events, trends, and speculating on what might become.

One concern in the field of drugs policy is how to make research more futures-oriented. Tracing trends and events with the potential to alter drug futures are seen as ways of becoming more prepared. This challenge is made complex in fast evolving drug markets which entangle with shifting social and material relations at global scale. In this analysis, we argue that drugs policy research orientates to detection and discovery based on the recent past. This narrows future-oriented analyses to the predictable and probable, imagined as extensions of the immediate and local present. We call for a more speculative approach; one which extends beyond the proximal, and one which orientates to possibilities rather than probabilities. Drawing on ideas on speculation from science and technology and futures studies, we argue that speculative research holds potential for more radical alterations in drugs policy. We encourage research approaches which not only valorise knowing in relation to what might happen but which conduct experiments on what could be. Accordingly, we trace how speculative research makes a difference by altering the present through making deliberative interventions on alternative policy options, including policy scenarios which make a radical break with the present. We look specifically at the 'Big Event' and 'Mega Trend' as devices of speculative intervention in futures-oriented drugs policy research. We illustrate how the device of Mega Trend helps to trace as well as to speculate on some of the entangling elements affecting drug futures, including in relation to climate, environment, development, population, drug production, digitalisation, biotechnology, policy and discourse.

The COVID-19 pandemic and speculation in energy, precious metals, and agricultural futures.

We report new evidence that speculation in energy and precious metal futures are more prevalent in crisis periods and even more so during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, agricultural futures attract more hedging pressure. Post-GFC patterns mirror the 1980s' recessions. Using quantile regression on a long-horizon sample we also find that speculative pressure generally coincides with abnormal returns in normal circumstances but not in the current pandemic. Instead, volatility is strongly and often non-linearly associated with speculation across instruments.